In light of the increased UKIP support ahead of the European Parliament elections, recent polling by TNS sheds some light on the make-up of UKIP supporters and looks at the implications for the next general election.
Firstly, it is of interest to note that UKIP supporters are not purely disgruntled Conservative supporters. In fact, UKIP have attracted some support from all of the main political parties and a significant proportion of their supporters did not actually vote in the last general election. Two-fifths (38%) of those that intend to vote for UKIP in the next general election did not turn out to vote in 2010, 23% previously voted for the Conservative party, 9% for Labour and 7% for the Liberal Democrats.
However, it is worth taking into account that the UKIP support for a general election is relatively “soft”. Only half (53%) of those that say they will vote for UKIP say that this is definitely the case and 40% believe that they may change their mind ahead of the election. Support for Labour and the Conservative party is somewhat more certain, with 74% of Labour supporters saying they will definitely vote for Labour and 65% of Conservative supporters saying they will definitely vote Conservative.
This suggests that whilst UKIP support is currently high ahead of the European elections, it is likely that it will fall away somewhat and that they will fare much less well in the 2015 general election.
Notes to editors
TNS interviewed a representative sample of 1,193 people between 3rd – 7th April 2014.
All interviews were conducted as online self-completion. The data is weighted to match population totals for age, sex, social grade, working status, presence of children, 2010 voting patterns and region.
The voting intention figures have been filtered to show the results for those that would “definitely vote” in the European elections and those that “preferred not to say” who they would vote for have been excluded from the results.
Further information is available upon request, and full data tables can be downloaded here.