London, 22 June - The final EU referendum voting intention survey by TNS, a Kantar company, suggests that turnout will be key in deciding the outcome of the referendum.
The survey of 2,320 adults in the UK gives the ‘Leave’ campaign a lead of 2 points over ‘Remain’. Voting intention among those registered to vote (including those not fully decided but leaning in one direction) is as follows:
- Remain 41%, Leave 43%, Undecided/Would not vote 16%
Luke Taylor, Head of Social and Political Attitudes at TNS UK said, “With many members of the public still undecided or not planning to vote there is uncertainty around the outcome of the referendum.
“Our latest poll suggests that Leave is in a stronger position than Remain but it should be noted that in the Scottish Independence Referendum and the 1995 Quebec Independence Referendum there was a late swing to the status quo and it is possible that the same will happen here”
“Clearly, with a race as close as this, the turnout level among different demographic groups will be critical in determining the result. For example, the 18-34 age group is strongly in favour of ‘Remain’ [50%-28%] but in general elections they tend to turn out at lower levels than older people (who lean towards leaving the EU). However, this referendum is not a general election; it is an event without precedent. If turnout does reflect the general election, it could mean a victory for Leave even if opinion among those registered to vote is almost evenly split.”
To understand any potential ‘last minute swing’ on Thursday 23rd June, TNS have set up an Election Day Voter Panel, consisting of 200 people who intend to vote in the EU Referendum.
Panellists have submitted a video during the last week outlining how they intend to vote in the referendum on Thursday and the reasons for their voting intention. After voting on the 23rd, they will submit a second video confirming their voting behaviour and explaining the reasons behind any late change. TNS will release the initial findings at 10:00pm on Thursday 23rd June.
Notes to editors
Download the survey data and further details on the methodological approach here.
A sample of 2,320 adults in the United Kingdom were interviewed between the 16th and 22nd June 2016. All interviews were conducted as online self-completion, using the Lightspeed GMI access panel as the sample source.
The data was weighted to match population totals for age, sex, working status, 2015 General Election voting patterns, education, region, agreement that people from different backgrounds get on in their local area, and likelihood to vote in the next General Election.
Since our previous poll, the weighting has been changed and no longer controls for past vote by age and region (see Method note). For the previous poll, the headline figure presented was for likely voters whereas for this poll it consists of all registered voters. The voting intention figure for those likely to vote (based on a turnout model from the general election) is 49% Leave and 42% Remain.
For further information, please contact Sarah Green, Communications Consultant, +44 (0)7767 008 178
TNS advises clients on specific growth strategies around new market entry, innovation, brand switching and customer strategies, based on long-established expertise and market-leading solutions. With a presence in over 80 countries, TNS has more conversations with the world’s consumers than anyone else and understands individual human behaviours and attitudes across every cultural, economic and political region of the world.
TNS is part of Kantar, the data investment management division of WPP and one of the world's largest insight, information and consultancy groups. Please visit www.tnsglobal.com for more information.
Kantar is the data investment management arm of WPP and one of the world's largest insight, information and consultancy groups. By uniting the diverse talents of its 12 specialist companies, the group is the pre-eminent provider of compelling data and inspirational insights for the global business community. Its 30,000 employees work across 100 countries and across the whole spectrum of research and consultancy disciplines, enabling the group to offer clients business insights at every point of the consumer cycle. The group’s services are employed by over half of the Fortune Top 500 companies. For further information, please visit us at www.kantar.com.