New figures from Kantar Public have Boris Johnson holding a 6 point lead over rival Ken Livingstone in the race to be Mayor of London (53% cf. 47%). The single biggest demographic discriminator for vote preference is age, as Livingstone holds a substantial lead over Johnson among 18-24 year olds, and actually holds a slight lead amongst those aged 25 to 54.
LONDON, 18 APRIL 2012 — New figures from Kantar Public have Boris Johnson holding a 6 point lead over rival Ken Livingstone in the race to be Mayor of London (53% cf. 47%). These figures are based on those who say they will either probably or definitely vote in the Mayoral elections on May 3rd and also take into account the second preference votes of those whose candidates we project will be eliminated during the first round of voting.
Looking in more detail beneath the headline figures, the single biggest demographic discriminator for vote preference is age. Ken Livingstone holds a substantial lead over Boris Johnson among 18-24 year olds (70% cf. 30%) and actually holds a slight lead amongst those aged 25 to 54 (56% cf. 44%). However, among the over 55s the story is reversed quite dramatically with Boris Johnson holding a lead of 40 points (70% cf. 30%). Unfortunately for Ken Livingstone the over 55s are the group that are the most likely to vote – targeting this group could be the key to Labour overhauling what is still a relatively small deficit.
For a copy of the data tables revealing voter preference patterns, please see the attached data tables for methodology and base sizes.
Notes to editors:
Kantar Public interviewed a representative sample of 1,008 people between 12th and 16th April.
All interviews were conducted as online self-completion. The data is weighted to match population totals for age, sex and 2010 General Election voting patterns. Further information is available on request.
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