London 2nd March 2010 – A half of all those intending to vote at the next election (52%) say they have not firmly decided which party they will vote for according to a recent Kantar Public poll. Among parents of under 16’s this figure is even larger with 6 out of 10 parents saying they’re not yet certain who they will support on the day of the election. This key group could hold the power in deciding the next Government.

58% of families who have children under 16 say they are unsure about who to vote for in the upcoming election and may change their minds. Alongside people under 35, these groups make up a significant proportion of the ‘soft’ vote – those people who may change their mind before the next election. Michelle Harrison, CEO of Kantar Public comments: “Parents with young children could become the battleground upon which this next election is won or lost. It is clear that education is high on the radar of all three key parties, but this may not be enough to engage this important group. The ‘elephant in the room’ when it comes to young families, especially young mums, is the role of the family and particularly mothers in the workplace. Issues such maternity/paternity pay, childcare vouchers etc, can divide opinion, but are also the topics that resonate in the mindsets of a lot of potential voters, many of which are still in the process of deciding how to use their vote. Taking a stand and creating polices in this area could be the difference between success at the polls and a failure to connect with UK families.”

The current Kantar Public Voting Intentions Poll shows that the Conservative lead over Labour is just 4%. However, around half of all voters are yet to finally decide who they will vote for in the forthcoming election. The good news for the Conservatives is that their supporters are a lot ‘firmer’ in their resolution to vote Tory. Around 55% of likely Conservative voters are certain about their choice, compared to only 44% of likely Labour voters who can say the same. Most concerning for the Liberal Democrats is that only 38% of their voters are ‘firm’ voters.

The left-over ‘soft’ Liberal Democrat voters are more likely to change to Conservative than Labour. When asked who their second vote would be for, 39% said Conservatives compared to only 34% who chose Labour.

Certain/uncertain voters chart
Fig 1. The proportion of certain Vs uncertain voters in each party.

Methodology

Kantar Public surveyed 1,954 GB adults aged 18+ via face-to-face interviews in respondents’ homes from 18th to 24th February 2010. Respondents entered their answers to the voting intention questions on a laptop in private so the interviewer and other people in the room could not see how they were answering.

About TNS–BMRB

Kantar Public is a leading provider of specialist social research, offering insight into public policy to government and not-for-profit clients. Delivering a range of approaches including bespoke proprietary research and consultancy, random probability survey capabilities, as well as social marketing and polling, Kantar Public is the largest commercial provider of social research and insight to Whitehall. Kantar Public is part of the TNS group. www.tnsglobal.com

The Kantar Group

The Kantar Group is one of the world’s largest research, insight and consultancy networks. By uniting the diverse talents of more than 20 specialist companies – including the recently-acquired TNS – the group aims to become the pre-eminent provider of compelling and actionable insights for the global business community. Its 26,500 employees work across 80 countries and across the whole spectrum of research and consultancy disciplines, enabling the group to offer clients business insights at each and every point of the consumer cycle. The group’s services are employed by over half of the Fortune Top 500 companies. The Kantar Group is a wholly-owned subsidiary of WPP Group plc. www.kantar.com

For more information please contact:

Laura Chatterton
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020 7656 5054
Laura.Chatterton@tns-ri.co.uk