London, 4 May 2016 – New London mayoral election polling by TNS puts Labour candidate Sadiq Khan in line to be the next London Mayor. Voting intentions are as follows:
First preference: Sadiq Khan (45%), Zac Goldsmith (33%), Others combined (21%)
Including second preferences: Sadiq Khan (57%), Zac Goldsmith (43%)
On first preferences, Labour candidate Sadiq Khan holds a 12 point advantage over Conservative candidate Zac Goldsmith. Amongst registered voters that have decided how they will vote, 45% favour Sadiq Khan as their first choice. This compares to 33% for Zac Goldsmith, 7% for Caroline Pidgeon, 5% for Peter Whittle, 4% for Sian Berry and 5% for the remaining candidates.
These results point towards a victory for Sadiq Khan once second preferences are taken into account. In a run-off between Khan and Goldsmith, the Labour candidate increases his lead to 14 points, on 57% to Goldsmith’s 43%. With voting due to commence tomorrow morning, this poll points towards a win for Labour and Sadiq Khan.
These polling figures are based on an assumption of a turnout in the region of 40% for the election (similar to the turnout in 2012 and 2008).
Luke Taylor, Head of Social and Political Attitudes at TNS UK said: “Ahead of tomorrow’s London mayoral election, our polling suggests a victory for Sadiq Khan is highly probable.”
Notes to editors
Date error in Questionnaire
An error was made in the drafting of the questionnaire which meant respondents for this survey were asked about voting on June 5th rather than on May 5th. We believe that respondents to the survey will still have answered the question in the same manner as if the question had correctly referred to May 5th.
A representative sample of 1,001 adults living in London was interviewed between the 26th and 3rd May 2016. All interviews were conducted as online self-completion. The Lightspeed GMI access panel was used as the sample source.
The data was weighted to match population totals for age, sex, region of London (NUTS3), 2015 General Election voting patterns, ethnicity and estimated likelihood of voting in the Mayoral Election.
The voting intention data has additionally been weighted (after the demographic and past political weighting) using a Likelihood To Vote (LTV) model.
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