London – Tuesday 21 April – A new poll by TNS UK shows that voter intention figures are as follows:

LAB 34% (+2), CON 32% (-2), LIB DEM 8% (-1), UKIP 15% (+1), GREEN 5% (0), OTHER 6% (+1)

Commenting, Jamie Willard, Director at TNS UK, said, “This latest poll points to neither Labour nor the Conservative party securing a decisive bounce after the debates and manifesto launches. All the indications are that we continue to face a result where no one party secures an overall majority.

“The continued evidence of strong polling for the minor parties points to a fragmented system and a Britain in political flux.

Notes to editors

Detailed tables for this survey can be found here.

TNS Omnibus interviewed a representative sample of 1,199 adults in Great Britain between the 16th and 20th April 2015. All interviews were conducted as online self-completion.

The TNS Omnibus uses the Lightspeed Research access panel as its sample source.

The data was weighted to match population totals for age, sex, working status, presence of children, 2010 General Election voting patterns and region. After the weighting a Likelihood to Vote (LTV) model based on data from the 2010 British Election study was applied. Voters that intended to vote for UKIP, BNP or the Green party but that live in a constituency where this party does not have a candidate standing have been reallocated to their second choice party.

The voting intention results exclude respondents who told us they would not vote in the next General Election, those that refused to say for whom they would vote, those that refused to say how likely they were to vote and those that reported not being registered to vote. Once these groups of respondents are removed the sample size for the voting intention figures is 861.

If we borrow random sampling theory for a moment, we can estimate the margin of error around the quoted Labour lead. The Labour lead is likely to be in the range -2.5% to +6.5%. As this range includes both positive and negative values, the race is too close to call.

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