London – 31st March 2016 - A new poll by TNS has found that while people’s voting intention remains evenly split between Remain 35% (-1) and Leave 35% (-1) with 30% (+2) undecided, people’s perceptions of the outcome have begun to change.
In previous polls we have found a larger proportion of people, while not necessarily voting to remain, believing that the outcome of the referendum would see the UK stay within the European Union.
However, between our last poll (10th March – 14th March) and today’s findings, belief in the UK remaining in the EU has fallen from a high of 41% to 33%. The proportion of people that expect the UK to leave the EU has remained consistent throughout our polling at 28%, but significantly, since our last poll two weeks ago ‘don’t knows’ have increased to 38% (from 31%).
When undecided voters were asked if they were leaning a particular way our latest research put Leave and Remain on an even footing at 17% a piece.
Luke Taylor, Head of Social and Political Attitudes at TNS UK said: “A shift in the perceived outcome of the referendum could prove significant as the next ten weeks roll on. It shows that while the country remains decidedly split on how they will vote, people are beginning to sense a shift in the nation’s mood. Although voting intention doesn’t show a winning side yet, this could be an indication of things to come.”
To complement our polling data, we looked at our parent group, Kantar’s Political Pulse analysis of twitter data. From this we see the EU referendum remains the most tweeted about issue (124,837) this month, narrowly beating the Budget (112,296). However, only 2% of tweets about the EU referendum were of a positive tone, while 44% were negative (and 54% were neutral).
When discussing the referendum on twitter, David Cameron, Jeremy Corbyn and Nigel Farage come out as the politicians most referred to, however only 1% of these tweets were of a positive tone – a breakdown of whether the tweets were positive or negative can be seen below:
David Cameron: Positive 1%, Neutral 57%, Negative 42%
Jeremy Corbyn: Positive 1%, Neutral 43%, Negative 55%
Nigel Farage: Positive 1%, Neutral 82%, Negative 17%
Notes to editors
TNS Omnibus interviewed a representative sample of 1,193 adults in Great Britain between the 24th March and 29th March 2016. All interviews were conducted as online self-completion.
The TNS Omnibus uses the Lightspeed GMI access panel as its sample.
The data was weighted to match population totals for age, sex, working status, 2015 General Election voting patterns, education, region and likelihood to vote in the next General Election. No adjustment has been made to the results to account for differential turnout in the referendum. We intend to publish a turnout-adjusted estimate for polls carried out in the last month before the referendum.
For further information, please contact Rhys Goode, TNS Global Communications Manager (Public Affairs) via email or on 0203 130 7413.
TNS UK advises clients on specific growth strategies around new market entry, innovation, brand switching and stakeholder management, based on long-established expertise and market-leading solutions. With a presence in over 80 countries, TNS has more conversations with the world's consumers than anyone else and understands individual human behaviours and attitudes across every cultural, economic and political region of the world. TNS is part of Kantar, one of the world's largest insight, information and consultancy groups.
Kantar is the data investment management division of WPP and one of the world's largest insight, information and consultancy groups. By connecting the diverse talents of its 12 specialist companies, the group aims to become the pre-eminent provider of compelling and inspirational insights for the global business community. Its 27,500 employees work across 100 countries and across the whole spectrum of research and consultancy disciplines, enabling the group to offer clients business insights at every point of the consumer cycle. The group's services are employed by over half of the Fortune Top 500 companies. For further information, please visit us at www.kantar.com.