TNS-BMRB’S NEW SEAT PREDICTION MODEL
- This is one of the most detailed models as it takes into account the race conditions for each individual seat and differs from the uniform national swing. It paints a more positive picture for Conservatives who would have 305 seats, Labour 197 (one less than the Conservatives currently have) and the Liberal Democrats would have 114. This would still have us in hung parliament territory, but a working majority is certainly nearer for David Cameron. However the uniform national swing, with TNS-BMRB’s polling figures, shows Labour and the Conservatives having nearly the same number of seats (Con 270; Lab 248) and the Liberal Democrats trailing significantly (101).
- Only 41% of likely voters want to replace Trident and retain Britain’s independent nuclear deterrent. 59% would rather save the money. Likely Tory voters are keenest on Trident, but even among these voters, 46% would rather save the money. Lib Dem voters are the most anti-Trident, with 70% saying they would rather save the money.
MANY TORY VOTERS SIMPLY VOTING AGAINST LABOUR
- A very strong motivation for Tory voters is the removal of the Labour government: 40% report this as their prime motivation. However, 60% are ‘positive’ Tory voters whose prime motivation is to get David Cameron’s team into power. Lib Dem and Labour voters are more ‘positive’ (67% of Lib Dem voters and 72% of Labour voters). It is noticeable that the Lib Dem support, static at 30% is now more ‘positive’ than it was last week (67% compared to 59%). It looks like the surge to Lib Dems is solidifying.
OTHER INTERESTING FINDINGS
- Since the last poll, the proportion of likely voters who thought the Lib Dems have had the best coverage this week is up to 66% from 61% and still way in front of the others.
- Belief in the likelihood of a hung parliament has increased since TNS-BMRB’s last poll: 58% now think this is the most likely outcome (up from 52%). Expectation of a Tory majority continues to fall: 24% (down from 30%).
- However, we also see an increase in the proportion of voters wanting a new election in the event of a hung parliament: 35%, up from 28% last week. A coalition is less popular (42%, down from 47%) but still the most popular outcome.
The % of likely supporters who say a policy is the most important to them.
Michelle Harrison, CEO of Kantar Public comments:
“Slowly, voters are starting to identify with the parties that best fit the values and ethos they hold themselves. This affinity is showing in the number of voters who say they are more certain about who they are going to vote for. However, as parties start to make a bid for those key floating voters, and speak out on extremely prevalent issues, these allegiances will be heavily tested. So we will expect to continue to see a lot of switch-around right up to the day of the election.”
Kantar Public interviewed a representative sample of 2078 GB adults aged 18+ between 21/4/10 and 27/4/10. Only 16% of interviews were completed before the last TV debate.
All interviews were conducted in respondents’ homes, although the voting intention data was collected using self-completion methods. The data is weighted twice, firstly to match population totals for age, sex, social grade, working status, presence of children, 2005 voting patterns, constituency type, and region, and secondly, for voting intention questions only, an additional ‘likelihood-to-vote’ weight has been applied.
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