Edinburgh, 13 August – The No side has extended its lead in the campaign for Scottish independence, but sentiment among those who say they are certain to vote appears to have stabilised, according to a new poll by TNS.

A survey of 1000 over-16s in Scotland found 45% backing a No vote in the September 18 referendum (up 4 points on a month ago), with 32% favouring a Yes vote (unchanged) and 23% undecided (down 4 points), giving a No lead of 13%.

The survey was largely conducted during the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow, with some interviewing taking place after the August 5th televised debate between First Minister Alex Salmond and Better Together leader Alistair Darling.

The latest poll suggests that these and other recent events have not swayed voting intentions among the 71% of all adults who say they are certain to vote in the referendum.

Among these voters, 46% say they will vote No, unchanged from a month ago, while 38% intend to vote Yes (up one percentage point) with 16% undecided (down 2% points).

Tom Costley, Head of TNS Scotland, said: “The fact that opinion among those certain to vote is holding steady is consistent with our previous polling, which has shown that voters on both sides are firmly committed to their views.

“With only a few weeks until the referendum, the hopes of the Yes campaign rest on winning over most of the dwindling number of undecided voters – at the end of last year, 25% of those who said they were certain to vote had not made up their minds: that important pool of voters is now a third smaller.”

In all the TNS pre-referendum polling, one consistent theme is that the voters in Scotland are unhappy about the amount of information they have been given to help them make a decision.

The latest poll shows that, even after months of debate and discussion and with only weeks to go until the vote, neither campaign has succeeded in giving a clear picture of what will happen after September 18th.

Only 29% agree they have enough info about what will happen after a Yes vote and 36% about what will happen after a No vote.

Tom Costley added “While it would appear that there is still a lot of uncertainty about what will follow a Yes vote – as highlighted by the ongoing discussions about currency – the lack of clarity about a No vote suggests many are still unsure about the additional powers being offered to Scotland by the main unionist parties.”

Scottish Opinion Monitor infographic

Notes to editors:

  • TNS began its current series of monthly polling on voting intention in the independence referendum last September, and further polling will be published in early September.
  • A sample of 1003 adults aged 16+ was interviewed in 69 constituencies across Scotland over the period 23rd July – 7th August 2014.
  • To ensure the sample was representative of the adult population of Scotland, it was weighted to match population profile estimates in the analysis. Data was also weighted to match turnout and share of constituency vote from the 2011 Holyrood election, as recorded in SPICe Briefing 11-29 2011 Scottish Parliament Election Results.
  • Respondents were asked: There will be a referendum on Scottish Independence on the 18th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country? Yes, No, Don’t know.
  • All interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home using CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing) and quota sampling.

Full data tables are available here.

About TNS

TNS UK advises clients on specific growth strategies around new market entry, innovation, brand switching and stakeholder management, based on long-established expertise and market-leading solutions. With a presence in over 80 countries, TNS has more conversations with the world’s consumers than anyone else and understands individual human behaviours and attitudes across every cultural, economic and political region of the world. TNS is part of Kantar, one of the world’s largest insight, information and consultancy groups.

TNS UK was awarded the Market Research Society’s (MRS) Agency of the Year 2013.

About Kantar

Kantar is the data investment management division of WPP and one of the world’s largest insight, information and consultancy groups. By connecting the diverse talents of its 12 specialist companies, the group aims to become the pre-eminent provider of compelling and inspirational insights for the global business community. Its 27,000 employees work across 100 countries and across the whole spectrum of research and consultancy disciplines, enabling the group to offer clients business insights at every point of the consumer cycle. The group’s services are employed by over half of the Fortune Top 500 companies. For further information, please visit us at www.kantar.com.

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