London, 17 May - The latest EU referendum voting intention survey by TNS shows that one in five voters (21%) are still undecided on whether to vote to remain or leave the European Union. There are signs that this undecided group is reducing, having been as high as 26% and 28% in our previous two polls.
The survey of 1,222 Adults in the UK gives the ‘Leave’ campaign a lead of 3 points over ‘Remain’. Voting intention is as follows:
- Remain 38 (-1), Leave 41% (+5), Undecided 21% (-5)
Luke Taylor, Head of Social and Political Attitudes at TNS UK said: "This poll suggests that we are seeing movement from undecided voters towards the Leave camp, though we will need to wait until the next poll to see if this is a trend or random variation.
“Although this poll is the first time since February that we have seen a lead for 'Leave', the race remains very tight with many yet to make up their mind. With five weeks to go until the referendum it remains all to play for and the challenge for the 'Remain' campaign continues to be in getting a high turnout among younger voters."
The survey also asked respondents what the likely result of the referendum will be. Most of those asked thought the UK will ultimately vote to remain in the European Union. The question in the survey was as follows:
“In the upcoming EU referendum, do you think the UK will...”
- Remain 39% (-2) Leave 26% (+3), Don't know 35% (-1)
TNS Omnibus interviewed a representative sample of 1,222 adults in the United Kingdom between the 10th May and 12th May 2016. All interviews were conducted as online self-completion.
The TNS Omnibus uses the Lightspeed GMI access panel as its sample.
The data was weighted to match population totals for age, sex, working status, 2015 General Election voting patterns, education, region and likelihood to vote in the next General Election. No adjustment has been made to the results to account for differential turnout in the referendum. We intend to publish a turnout-adjusted estimate for polls carried out in the last month before the referendum.
For further information, please contact Sarah Green, Communications Consultant, +44 (0)7767 008 178
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