London, 14th June - The latest EU referendum voting intention survey by TNS gives the Leave campaign a significant lead nine days out from polling day.
The survey of 2,497 adults in the UK gives the ‘Leave’ campaign a lead of 7 points over ‘Remain’. Voting intention among likely voters (including those not fully decided but leaning in one direction) is as follows:
- Remain 40%, Leave 47%, Undecided/Would not vote 13%
Luke Taylor, Head of Social and Political Attitudes at TNS UK said, “It should be noted that among the entire general public the picture is more balanced with 33% supporting Remain, 35% supporting Leave and 32% undecided or planning not to vote.
"Taking into account likelihood to vote and whether or not people are registered to vote, benefits 'Leave' over 'Remain'. In particular, our turnout model penalises younger people and those that did not vote in the previous general election, as historically these groups are less likely to vote. However, this model is based on general elections and as this is a referendum turnout among these groups may be higher than expected, boosting the Remain score.
“Furthermore, while this poll presents a substantial lead for 'Leave' over 'Remain' among those voters that have now made up their minds, the proportion selecting 'Leave' is still a minority of all voters. There are still many undecided voters out there and the history of referendums suggests that they will largely opt for the status quo.
“This swing towards Leave since our last poll in late May might be due to a genuine change in opinion among voters but it could also be due to random error.
"By our estimation, polls of this size and type should get within 2.5 percentage points of the true proportion of voters currently intending to vote Leave (and the same for Remain) but that means that the poll result may end up anywhere within a five percentage point range (+/-2.5% from the true value). The margin of error for the lead that one side has over the other (assuming the undecided figure is static) may be anywhere within a ten percentage point range (+/-5% from the true value). In short, we should expect substantial variation in results from one poll to the next.
“This should illustrate why single polls should never be taken at face value but treated as data points within the much larger dataset of all polls carried out by members of the British Polling Council.”
Notes to editors
TNS Omnibus interviewed a representative sample of 2,497 adults in the United Kingdom between the 7th and 13th June 2016. All interviews were conducted as online self-completion.
The TNS Omnibus uses the Lightspeed GMI access panel as its sample source.
The data was weighted to match population totals for age, sex, working status, 2015 General Election voting patterns, education, region and likelihood to vote in the next General Election.
Since our previous poll, changes have been made to: the questionnaire to capture postal voting and whether or not people are registered to vote, and to the past political weighting. Further details are included in the methodological note which prefaces the data tables.
It should be noted that these changes do not have a substantial impact on the voting intention results, with our previous methodology ‘Leave’ would still have registered a ten point lead over ‘Remain’.
For further information, please contact Sarah Green, Communications Consultant, +44 (0)7767 008 178.
TNS UK advises clients on specific growth strategies around new market entry, innovation, brand switching and stakeholder management, based on long-established expertise and market-leading solutions. With a presence in over 80 countries, TNS has more conversations with the world's consumers than anyone else and understands individual human behaviours and attitudes across every cultural, economic and political region of the world. TNS is part of Kantar, one of the world's largest insight, information and consultancy groups.
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