Edinburgh - 13 September - As politicians return from their summer recess, the latest poll from Kantar TNS suggests that there is little evidence of any growth in support for Scotland to become an independent country.
The survey of 1047 adults in Scotland shows almost no growth in support for Independence since the UK voted for Brexit. When respondents were asked, “If there was a referendum on Scottish independence tomorrow, how would you vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country?”, the results were as follows:
- 41% said Yes
- 47% said No
- 12% replied 'Don't know'
Excluding the ‘Don’t Knows’ produces a split of 53%:47% in favour of staying within the Union – close to the result of the September 2014 Referendum which was 55%:45%. This increase of 2 percentage points in the Yes vote is not statistically significant.
Tom Costley, Head of Kantar TNS in Scotland commented that, “In the aftermath of the Brexit vote and Scotland’s contrasting position with much of the rest of Britain, the SNP would have hoped for more of an uplift in support for Scottish independence. The recent launch of the SNP’s ‘listening exercise’ appears to be timely as it seeks to understand how it can persuade more Scottish voters to back the independence option, prior to seeking a second referendum on the subject.”
Interestingly, around 1 in 4 of those who voted Labour in the Holyrood elections in May 2016 would vote Yes to independence; countered somewhat by just under 1 in 5 of those who voted SNP who would vote No to independence.
Notes to editors:
The full data tables are available here.
1. A sample of 1047 adults aged 16+ was interviewed across Scotland over the period 10th August-4 September 2016.
2. To ensure the sample was representative of the adult population of Scotland (aged 16+), it was weighted to match population profile estimates in the analysis. Data was also weighted to match turnout and share of vote from the 2015 General Election in Scotland (as recorded at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/scotland), and turnout and share of constituency vote from the 2016 Holyrood election (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/scotland/results).
Unweighted and weighted bases are shown at the top of each data table.
3. All interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home using CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing) and quota sampling.
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