London, 6 June - The latest EU referendum voting intention survey by TNS UK and released as part of a wider TNS Public Affairs International survey shows the outcome of the referendum is still too tight to call.

The survey of 1,213 Adults in the UK (conducted between the 19th and 23rd May) gives the ‘Leave’ campaign a lead of 2 points over ‘Remain’ – which is within the margin of error of the poll. Voting intentions are as follows:

  • Remain 41%, Leave 43%, Undecided 16%

The nine other European countries surveyed as part of this research all think that the UK should vote to ‘Remain’. The public in France and Germany currently think that the UK will vote to ‘Remain’ in the EU, however, those in the Netherlands and the Czech Republic are less sure of this with an equal number believing the UK will vote ‘Leave’ as ‘Remain’.

Luke Taylor, Head of Social and Political Attitudes at TNS UK said: "With the referendum less than a month away, we are now adjusting the voting intention for differential turnout. The support for ‘Remain’ looks to be softer than the support for ‘Leave’ and without this adjustment ‘Remain’ would have a three point lead over ‘Leave’. Whether or not ‘Remain’ supporters turn out will therefore be critical in the outcome."

Notes to editors

Download the full survey data and further details on the methodological approach.

TNS Omnibus interviewed a representative sample of 1,213 adults in the United Kingdom between the 19th and 23rd May 2016. All interviews were conducted as online self-completion.

The TNS Omnibus uses the Lightspeed GMI access panel as its sample.

The data was weighted to match population totals for age, sex, working status, 2015 General Election voting patterns, education, region and likelihood to vote in the next General Election.

Since our previous poll, changes have been made to the past political weighting and the EU referendum voting intentions are now turnout adjusted. Further details are included in the methodological note which prefaces the data tables.

For further information, please contact Sarah Green, Communications Consultant, +44 (0)20 7656 5358

About TNS
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