London, 23 June - Emerging insight from the TNS Election Day Voter Panel shows that many voters we have spoken to qualitatively have changed or made up their mind in the last few days of the campaign. It also shines light on the key messages which have swayed voters.
This initial analysis focuses on the undecided and those that had previously made up their mind but changed it in the final days of the campaign.
We can see among both of these groups that some campaign messages have resonated, but other factors such as celebrity endorsements and discussions with friends and family have also influenced their decisions.
What’s happened to those that were undecided?
So far today 1 in 6 of our qualitative sample have moved from a previously undecided position to supporting Remain or Leave. This group has split fairly equally between Remain and Leave; movement towards the status quo does not appear to be a dominant theme so far for our Voter Panel.
We have seen four of the major campaign messages come through and influence last minute decision making.
Those who have moved from undecided to Remain have done so primarily because of fear of the impact of economy of an exit; and the uncertainty/risk of a future outside of the EU, both making the status quo more appealing.
“I voted to remain in the EU just because I think we don't fully know the risks here”
“I just think that you can't really tell what the future holds if we leave the EU but if we stay I think right now we're good as an economy …”
Dominating the decision to move from Undecided to vote Leave are the major campaign issues of both immigration and the NHS.
“Purely because I think the money we spend on being a member of the EU, could be better spent on the NHS, and schools, and public services.”
“I've got kids, I gotta think of their future I mean it’s hard enough getting an appointment at doctors and hospitals and now it’s just going to get worse if more and more people come in”
These four key themes have driven around half of these late decisions, but friends, family and community have also had an impact, as have a whole range of other issues from easy travel around the EU through to celebrity endorsement.
The 'hard-switchers': those who have moved from Remain to Leave and Leave to Remain.
We have also seen a group of people who have moved from one 'camp' to another. These are equal numbers in size and are less than ten percent of the qualitative panel.
“After much deliberation changing my mind one way, then the other, I still don't know, so I've decided not to vote. I don't know, I just didn't know who to believe.“
We’ve seen a bigger switch from Leave to Remain, driven by concerns about risk and uncertainty making the status quo more appealing, as well as arguments around the economy.
Interestingly, few of those that intended to vote remain have switched to Leave. Those who have decided to do this, did so because of immigration and having a strong British identity. However they have been more likely not to vote at all.
Notes to Editors
Kantar’s TNS have conducted qualitative research with an Election Day Voter Panel of 200 voters from across the UK. The panel consists of people who intend to vote in the election. Two stages of research were undertaken, with panellists being asked to submit video vox pops at both stages:
1. In the days leading up to the referendum the panel was asked how they intended to vote and why
2. On Thursday 23rd June, polling day, the panel were asked how they voted and why. So far 154 panellists have told us how they voted today.
This study provides insight in to the sentiment of how people are voting and why, and, by comparing responses before election day to those given on the day, will provide evidence of people changing their minds in terms of how they intended to vote vs. how they actually voted, and what led to them changing their minds.
For further information, please contact Sarah Green, Communications Consultant, +44 (0)7767 008 178
TNS advises clients on specific growth strategies around new market entry, innovation, brand switching and customer strategies, based on long-established expertise and market-leading solutions. With a presence in over 80 countries, TNS has more conversations with the world’s consumers than anyone else and understands individual human behaviours and attitudes across every cultural, economic and political region of the world.
TNS is part of Kantar, the data investment management division of WPP and one of the world's largest insight, information and consultancy groups.
Kantar is the data investment management arm of WPP and one of the world's largest insight, information and consultancy groups. By uniting the diverse talents of its 12 specialist companies, the group is the pre-eminent provider of compelling data and inspirational insights for the global business community. Its 30,000 employees work across 100 countries and across the whole spectrum of research and consultancy disciplines, enabling the group to offer clients business insights at every point of the consumer cycle. The group’s services are employed by over half of the Fortune Top 500 companies. For further information, please visit us at www.kantar.com.